Marin County: 3Q Results

The frenetic pace of real estate activity in Pacific Union’s Marin County region began slowing in the third quarter, even as sales prices continued to rise. We saw more price reductions in the quarter than we’ve seen all year, and several instances where homes didn’t sell. Buyers seemed less eager to jump through the hoops some sellers demanded, suggesting that they are either doing more market research or are perhaps simply exhausted after repeatedly losing out on bidding wars.

Nonetheless, open houses were well-attended and homebuyers were plentiful. Attractive homes in desirable neighborhoods sold quickly, often at prices well above list. Inventory levels remained exceptionally slim, although we saw an uptick in new listings starting after Labor Day. The market for high-priced homes – those in the neighborhood of $10 million and above – was particularly strong.

Looking Forward: Marin County is a desirable place to live and increasingly attractive to buyers with high-paying tech jobs in San Francisco and Silicon Valley. We expect strong sales in the fourth quarter, with many qualified buyers looking to get into new homes before the holidays.

Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities

Median Sales Price:

The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price.

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Month’s Supply of Inventory:

The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market.

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Average days on Market:

Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close.

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Percentage of  Properties Under Contract:

Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes.

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Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price:

Measuring the sales price as a percentage of the final list price, which may include price reductions from the original list price, determines the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount. It also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.

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A Closer Look at Marin County:

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